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Current odds -- before Buf-Car G7 How to read this chart * Methodology & reliability notes * Archive of previous odds reports
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 100.0% 54.3% 28.9%
Buf 100.0% 100.0% 45.7% 24.1%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 47.0%
SJ 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ana 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colo 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LEGEND This chart shows each NHL playoff-qualifying team's probability of advancing to future rounds of the tournament. The column headed "Rd2" displays the team's estimated chance of advancing to the second round. "CF" denotes the estimated chance of reaching the conference finals; "Fin" denotes the estimated chance of reaching the league finals; "Chmp" indicates the estimated chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Teams with "100%" in a column have already advanced. Teams with "0%" in a column have already been eliminated. Results are updated at the conclusion of each night's play and do take the results of partially-completed series into account.
After game of May 20
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 100.0% 34.7% 19.4%
Buf 100.0% 100.0% 65.3% 36.3%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 100.0% 74.8% 35.3%
SJ 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ana 100.0% 100.0% 25.2% 9.1%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colo 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
After game of May 17
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 100.0% 51.8% 29.9%
Buf 100.0% 100.0% 48.2% 27.6%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 100.0% 60.1% 28.3%
SJ 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ana 100.0% 100.0% 39.9% 14.3%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colo 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
After game of May 14
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 100.0% 51.8% 30.5%
Buf 100.0% 100.0% 48.2% 28.1%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 80.0% 48.1% 22.6%
SJ 100.0% 20.0% 10.6% 4.0%
Ana 100.0% 100.0% 41.3% 14.8%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colo 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 48.1%
Cdn team wins Cup 22.6%
After games of May 12
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 9.8% 6.0% 2.9%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 94.8% 48.0% 28.9%
Buf 100.0% 90.2% 44.9% 26.9%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 54.8% 32.9% 15.8%
SJ 100.0% 45.2% 23.9% 9.2%
Ana 100.0% 100.0% 43.2% 15.9%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 5.2% 1.2% 0.35%
Colo 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 36.9%
Cdn team wins Cup 18.7%
After games of May 11
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 9.8% 6.0% 3.0%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 94.8% 48.0% 29.4%
Buf 100.0% 90.2% 44.9% 27.3%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 38.1% 22.9% 11.0%
SJ 100.0% 61.9% 32.7% 12.6%
Ana 100.0% 100.0% 44.4% 16.4%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 5.2% 1.2% 0.36%
Colo 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 27.5%
Cdn team wins Cup 14.0%
After games of May 10
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 4.1% 2.5% 1.2%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 94.8% 48.6% 29.8%
Buf 100.0% 95.9% 47.7% 29.1%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 38.1% 23.1% 11.0%
SJ 100.0% 61.9% 33.1% 12.6%
Ana 100.0% 97.3% 43.2% 15.8%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 5.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Colo 100.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.13%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 25.0%
Cdn team wins Cup 12.3%
After game of May 9
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 12.3% 7.5% 3.8%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 93.7% 47.2% 29.3%
Buf 100.0% 87.7% 43.9% 27.1%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 25.8% 15.6% 7.6%
SJ 100.0% 74.2% 39.6% 15.3%
Ana 100.0% 97.3% 44.0% 16.4%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 6.3% 1.4% 0.4%
Colo 100.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.14%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 21.9%
Cdn team wins Cup 11.4%
After games of May 8
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 12.3% 7.5% 3.8%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 93.7% 47.2% 29.4%
Buf 100.0% 87.7% 43.9% 27.2%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 25.8% 16.0% 7.7%
SJ 100.0% 74.2% 40.7% 15.7%
Ana 100.0% 90.1% 40.8% 15.2%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 6.3% 1.4% 0.4%
Colo 100.0% 9.9% 2.6% 0.5%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 22.3%
Cdn team wins Cup 11.5%
After games of May 7
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 25.5% 15.7% 7.9%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 87.7% 42.7% 26.2%
Buf 100.0% 74.5% 38.6% 23.5%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 43.0% 26.6% 13.2%
SJ 100.0% 57.0% 31.3% 12.5%
Ana 100.0% 90.1% 39.6% 15.3%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 12.3% 2.9% 0.9%
Colo 100.0% 9.9% 2.5% 0.5%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 38.1%
Cdn team wins Cup 21.1%
After game of May 6
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 25.5% 15.7% 7.8%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 87.7% 42.7% 25.9%
Buf 100.0% 74.5% 38.6% 23.2%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 58.5% 37.1% 18.4%
SJ 100.0% 41.5% 23.5% 9.4%
Ana 100.0% 81.2% 34.8% 13.4%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 12.3% 2.9% 0.9%
Colo 100.0% 18.8% 4.6% 1.0%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 47.0%
Cdn team wins Cup 26.2%
After games of May 5
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 25.5% 15.9% 7.9%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 80.2% 39.1% 23.7%
Buf 100.0% 74.5% 40.3% 24.2%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 58.5% 37.1% 18.6%
SJ 100.0% 41.5% 23.5% 9.5%
Ana 100.0% 81.2% 34.8% 13.6%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 19.8% 4.7% 1.4%
Colo 100.0% 18.8% 4.6% 1.0%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 47.1%
Cdn team wins Cup 26.5%
After game of May 3
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 40.3% 25.1% 12.5%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 80.2% 37.7% 22.9%
Buf 100.0% 59.7% 32.3% 19.5%
Cgy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edm 100.0% 58.5% 38.2% 19.6%
SJ 100.0% 41.5% 24.3% 10.1%
Ana 100.0% 71.0% 30.5% 12.2%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 19.8% 4.9% 1.5%
Colo 100.0% 29.0% 7.1% 1.6%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 53.7%
Cdn team wins Cup 32.1%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 0.0%
After games of May 2
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 40.3% 25.1% 11.9%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 100.0% 80.2% 37.7% 22.1%
Buf 100.0% 59.7% 32.3% 18.8%
Cgy 60.0% 31.2% 20.9% 10.9%
Edm 100.0% 52.2% 33.7% 17.3%
SJ 100.0% 60.0% 27.0% 11.3%
Ana 40.0% 28.4% 12.2% 4.9%
Phi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 19.8% 4.9% 1.4%
Colo 100.0% 28.2% 6.3% 1.4%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 66.0%
Cdn team wins Cup 40.1%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 60.0%
After games of May 1
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 39.9% 23.7% 11.3%
Det 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mtl 29.4% 20.3% 13.7% 8.9%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 70.6% 56.6% 27.1% 15.9%
Buf 83.3% 54.2% 27.9% 16.3%
Cgy 60.0% 31.2% 20.9% 10.8%
Edm 100.0% 52.2% 33.7% 17.1%
SJ 100.0% 60.0% 27.0% 11.1%
Ana 40.0% 28.4% 12.2% 4.8%
Phi 16.7% 7.7% 2.5% 0.9%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 21.3% 5.1% 1.4%
Colo 100.0% 28.2% 6.3% 1.4%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Cdn team in final 71.5%
Cdn team wins Cup 48.0%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 60.0%
After games of April 30
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 39.9% 23.7% 10.0%
Det 32.6% 29.1% 20.7% 14.1%
Mtl 29.4% 20.3% 13.7% 8.3%
Dal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 70.6% 56.6% 27.1% 14.4%
Buf 83.3% 54.2% 27.9% 14.8%
Cgy 80.4% 44.4% 25.1% 12.9%
Edm 67.4% 33.7% 21.7% 11.0%
SJ 100.0% 59.5% 22.8% 9.4%
Ana 19.6% 12.4% 4.9% 1.9%
Phi 16.7% 7.7% 2.5% 0.8%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 21.3% 5.1% 1.2%
Colo 100.0% 22.3% 4.9% 1.1%
Nas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cdn team in final 66.7%
Cdn team wins Cup 42.2%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 54.2%
After games of April 29 [plus minor bug fix]
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 100.0% 38.2% 22.3% 9.1%
Det 32.6% 27.7% 19.0% 12.8%
Mtl 54.7% 37.8% 26.6% 15.7%
Dal 33.1% 19.9% 11.6% 6.9%
NYR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Car 45.3% 36.3% 17.7% 9.1%
Buf 65.6% 45.7% 22.7% 11.6%
Cgy 80.4% 45.2% 23.6% 12.1%
Edm 67.4% 31.7% 19.6% 9.8%
SJ 93.2% 47.6% 18.1% 7.4%
Ana 19.6% 11.0% 4.2% 1.6%
Phi 34.4% 17.7% 5.2% 1.67%
TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJ 100.0% 24.3% 5.5% 1.23%
Colo 66.9% 15.4% 3.4% 0.78%
Nas 6.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.09%
Cdn team in final 71.0%
Cdn team wins Cup 46.7%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 40.8%
After games of April 28
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 94.0% 32.5% 19.8% 7.5%
Det 63.2% 53.8% 37.4% 25.0%
Mtl 54.7% 37.6% 26.0% 14.6%
Dal 33.1% 20.5% 11.0% 6.5%
NYR 18.3% 11.0% 5.7% 2.9%
Car 45.3% 34.6% 17.0% 8.2%
Buf 65.6% 43.4% 21.5% 10.2%
Cgy 60.4% 34.0% 15.7% 7.9%
Edm 36.8% 17.9% 11.2% 5.5%
SJ 93.2% 42.4% 14.9% 6.0%
Ana 39.6% 19.3% 6.8% 2.6%
Phi 34.4% 16.4% 4.8% 1.41%
TB 6.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.09%
NJ 81.7% 20.4% 4.6% 0.94%
Colo 66.9% 11.7% 2.7% 0.62%
Nas 6.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.07%
Cdn team in final 60.4%
Cdn team wins Cup 35.5%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 16.7%
After games of April 27
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 94.0% 30.8% 16.7% 6.3%
Det 63.2% 54.8% 38.7% 25.3%
Mtl 75.1% 51.6% 34.5% 19.4%
Dal 20.6% 12.7% 6.9% 3.9%
NYR 18.3% 10.4% 5.3% 2.7%
Car 24.9% 18.9% 9.1% 4.4%
Buf 80.9% 55.1% 27.0% 13.0%
Cgy 60.4% 34.6% 16.2% 8.0%
Edm 36.8% 18.5% 11.7% 5.6%
SJ 93.2% 44.8% 15.7% 6.1%
Ana 39.6% 20.5% 7.2% 2.7%
Phi 19.1% 9.6% 2.7% 0.80%
TB 6.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.09%
NJ 81.7% 20.4% 4.3% 0.89%
Colo 79.4% 13.9% 3.2% 0.71%
Nas 6.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.07%
Cdn team in final 64.8%
Cdn team wins Cup 39.4%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 18.8%
After games of April 26
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 81.0% 26.6% 14.4% 5.8%
Det 42.9% 37.2% 26.1% 17.0%
Mtl 75.1% 50.8% 35.0% 20.4%
Dal 20.6% 12.5% 7.1% 4.1%
NYR 18.3% 10.2% 5.3% 2.8%
Car 24.9% 19.0% 9.5% 4.8%
Buf 80.9% 53.6% 27.1% 13.7%
Cgy 76.6% 44.1% 22.9% 11.3%
Edm 57.1% 28.0% 17.9% 8.7%
SJ 82.2% 42.5% 15.9% 6.2%
Ana 23.4% 13.5% 5.1% 1.9%
Phi 19.1% 9.1% 2.7% 0.85%
TB 19.0% 7.4% 1.4% 0.31%
NJ 81.7% 22.1% 4.7% 1.04%
Colo 79.4% 17.6% 3.9% 0.87%
Nas 17.8% 5.7% 1.1% 0.23%
Cdn team in final 70.0%
Cdn team wins Cup 46.2%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 37.1%
After games of April 25
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 81.0% 26.0% 12.2% 4.8%
Det 42.9% 35.9% 24.4% 15.6%
Mtl 87.1% 58.5% 38.2% 21.9%
Dal 45.6% 27.6% 15.7% 8.8%
NYR 44.7% 24.0% 12.4% 6.4%
Car 12.9% 9.1% 4.4% 2.2%
Buf 87.0% 53.4% 26.8% 13.2%
Cgy 76.6% 43.8% 21.5% 10.3%
Edm 57.1% 26.5% 16.2% 7.6%
SJ 82.2% 37.7% 14.0% 5.3%
Ana 23.4% 12.1% 4.5% 1.6%
Phi 13.0% 5.5% 1.6% 0.49%
TB 19.0% 6.8% 1.2% 0.26%
NJ 55.3% 15.3% 3.1% 0.66%
Colo 54.4% 12.1% 2.7% 0.57%
Nas 17.8% 4.8% 0.9% 0.18%
Cdn team in final 69.1%
Cdn team wins Cup 44.6%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 29.0%
After games of April 24
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 64.8% 20.8% 9.8% 3.7%
Det 61.9% 52.1% 35.9% 23.0%
Mtl 87.1% 57.1% 38.5% 21.4%
Dal 45.6% 28.7% 15.5% 8.8%
NYR 44.7% 23.3% 12.4% 6.2%
Car 12.9% 9.3% 4.7% 2.2%
Buf 87.0% 52.1% 27.3% 12.9%
Cgy 58.6% 33.8% 15.5% 7.5%
Edm 38.1% 18.4% 11.5% 5.4%
SJ 69.5% 30.3% 10.6% 4.0%
Ana 41.4% 20.2% 7.1% 2.6%
Phi 13.0% 5.3% 1.6% 0.47%
TB 35.2% 12.6% 2.2% 0.45%
NJ 55.3% 17.3% 3.5% 0.69%
Colo 54.4% 10.2% 2.4% 0.52%
Nas 30.5% 7.5% 1.4% 0.27%
Cdn team in final 62.2%
Cdn team wins Cup 37.9%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 14.9%
After games of April 23
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 64.8% 21.9% 10.2% 3.7%
Det 61.9% 50.4% 33.5% 21.6%
Mtl 73.5% 48.0% 31.4% 17.2%
Dal 69.9% 44.0% 23.8% 13.5%
NYR 65.6% 35.7% 19.0% 9.2%
Car 26.5% 18.4% 9.1% 4.3%
Buf 80.7% 46.2% 23.9% 11.0%
Cgy 58.6% 32.3% 14.3% 6.9%
Edm 38.1% 17.1% 10.3% 4.8%
SJ 69.5% 27.4% 9.5% 3.6%
Ana 41.4% 17.6% 6.1% 2.2%
Phi 19.3% 7.3% 2.2% 0.6%
TB 35.2% 10.6% 1.9% 0.38%
NJ 34.4% 10.2% 2.2% 0.42%
Colo 30.1% 5.7% 1.4% 0.28%
Nas 30.5% 6.5% 1.1% 0.23%
Cdn team in final 56.0%
Cdn team wins Cup 32.7%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 11.0%
After games of April 22
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 80.7% 27.3% 12.7% 4.4%
Det 78.3% 63.7% 42.8% 27.5%
Mtl 73.5% 49.2% 31.4% 16.6%
Dal 69.9% 43.6% 22.1% 12.5%
NYR 65.6% 36.6% 19.0% 8.9%
Car 26.5% 17.7% 8.6% 3.8%
Buf 80.7% 45.9% 23.1% 10.2%
Cgy 75.4% 40.6% 17.1% 8.3%
Edm 21.7% 9.6% 5.8% 2.7%
SJ 54.6% 19.1% 6.4% 2.4%
Ana 24.6% 9.7% 3.3% 1.2%
Phi 19.3% 7.3% 2.2% 0.6%
TB 19.3% 5.8% 1.1% 0.19%
NJ 34.4% 9.3% 2.0% 0.35%
Colo 30.1% 4.8% 1.2% 0.24%
Nas 45.4% 8.1% 1.4% 0.28%
Cdn team in final 56.9%
Cdn team wins Cup 31.9%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 8.2%
After games of April 21
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 80.7% 29.5% 13.5% 4.6%
Det 78.3% 62.3% 41.1% 26.6%
Mtl 58.4% 39.1% 24.6% 12.9%
Dal 85.2% 53.1% 27.0% 15.4%
NYR 80.1% 46.7% 24.5% 11.3%
Car 41.6% 27.2% 13.0% 5.7%
Buf 70.2% 37.6% 19.1% 8.3%
Cgy 75.4% 38.2% 16.0% 7.8%
Edm 21.7% 9.2% 5.3% 2.5%
SJ 54.6% 17.9% 6.0% 2.3%
Ana 24.6% 8.6% 2.9% 1.1%
Phi 29.8% 10.3% 3.1% 0.8%
TB 19.3% 5.3% 1.0% 0.18%
NJ 19.9% 5.3% 1.2% 0.20%
Colo 14.8% 2.4% 0.6% 0.12%
Nas 45.4% 7.3% 1.2% 0.25%
Cdn team in final 51.3%
Cdn team wins Cup 27.8%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 6.4%
April 20 adjustment [Hasek removed]
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 70.3% 25.7% 11.8% 4.2%
Det 67.1% 53.3% 34.7% 22.5%
Mtl 58.4% 38.4% 24.6% 13.3%
Dal 85.2% 53.4% 28.4% 16.2%
NYR 80.1% 46.0% 24.4% 11.6%
Car 41.6% 27.9% 13.6% 6.2%
Buf 70.2% 38.1% 19.5% 8.8%
Cgy 63.2% 32.9% 14.1% 6.9%
Edm 32.9% 14.0% 8.1% 3.8%
SJ 70.3% 25.2% 8.5% 3.2%
Ana 36.8% 13.7% 4.7% 1.7%
Phi 29.8% 10.4% 3.2% 0.9%
TB 29.7% 8.1% 1.5% 0.28%
NJ 19.9% 5.5% 1.2% 0.23%
Colo 14.8% 2.6% 0.6% 0.13%
Nas 29.7% 5.5% 0.9% 0.19%
Cdn team in final 50.5%
Cdn team wins Cup 28.1%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 7.9%
3:58 pm MST, April 19 [Esche as PHI starter]
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 82.2% 42.3% 23.5% 11.8%
Det 67.1% 53.3% 34.7% 21.8%
Mtl 58.4% 32.1% 20.3% 10.9%
Dal 85.2% 53.4% 28.4% 15.5%
NYR 80.1% 42.5% 21.3% 10.1%
Car 41.6% 27.1% 13.1% 6.0%
Buf 70.2% 36.8% 17.2% 7.7%
Cgy 63.2% 32.9% 14.1% 6.6%
Edm 32.9% 14.0% 8.1% 3.6%
SJ 70.3% 25.2% 8.5% 3.0%
Ana 36.8% 13.7% 4.7% 1.6%
Phi 29.8% 10.0% 2.7% 0.7%
TB 17.8% 4.8% 0.9% 0.2%
NJ 19.9% 5.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Colo 14.8% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Nas 29.7% 5.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Cdn team in final 56.3%
Cdn team wins Cup 32.9%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 7.9%
END OF REGULAR SEASON (April 18)
Rd2 CF Fin Chmp
Ott 82.2% 42.4% 23.4% 11.7%
Det 67.1% 53.3% 34.7% 21.8%
Mtl 58.4% 32.0% 20.1% 10.8%
Dal 85.2% 53.4% 28.4% 15.5%
NYR 80.1% 42.7% 21.3% 10.1%
Car 41.6% 27.1% 13.2% 6.0%
Buf 74.7% 39.2% 18.3% 8.2%
Cgy 63.2% 32.9% 14.1% 6.5%
Edm 32.9% 14.0% 8.1% 3.6%
SJ 70.3% 25.2% 8.5% 3.0%
Ana 36.8% 13.7% 4.7% 1.6%
Phi 25.3% 7.5% 1.8% 0.4%
TB 17.8% 4.8% 0.9% 0.2%
NJ 19.9% 5.3% 1.0% 0.2%
Colo 14.8% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Nas 29.7% 5.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Cdn team in final 56.1%
Cdn team wins Cup 32.7%
Cgy-Edm meeting: 7.9%
METHOD For the fullest account of how these tables are generated, visit my weblog entry on the original Big Spreadsheet. Notice the hilarious choice of "the Minnesota Wild making the conference final" as a particularly unlikely result for the '03 playoffs--that should give you all the warning you need about accuracy and validity. This version of the Big Spreadsheet makes three important changes to regular-season records:
Unlike older versions of the B.S., this application does not use goal differential as the primary initial indicator of team strength--merely the won-loss record, adjusted for the three factors above and no others. The Spreadsheet does not "know" that there are fewer power plays in the playoffs, and except for goalies it does not "know" what teams have major players suffering or absent from injury. It also treats goaltending as no more important than it is in the regular season: in past years there has been strong empirical warrant for considering goaltending to be especially important to playoff success. This quote from my '03 method notes is the most important thing to understand about these odds charts: The only advantage the Big Spreadsheet really confers is consistency--it makes sure... that all the exhaustive and mutually exclusive probabilities add up to 1.000, all along the way. In other respects, they should be regarded as merely amusing and probably (in some ways certainly) quite stupid. |