Colby Cosh's nightly NHL playoff odds report.

Return to ColbyCosh.com mainpage Current odds -- before Buf-Car G7
How to read this chart * Methodology & reliability notes * Archive of previous odds reports

         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%   100.0%    54.3%    28.9%
 Buf   100.0%   100.0%    45.7%    24.1%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    47.0%
 SJ    100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Ana   100.0%   100.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Colo  100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

LEGEND
This chart shows each NHL playoff-qualifying team's probability of advancing to future rounds of the tournament.
The column headed "Rd2" displays the team's estimated chance of advancing to the second round.
"CF" denotes the estimated chance of reaching the conference finals; "Fin" denotes the estimated chance of reaching the league finals; "Chmp" indicates the estimated chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Teams with "100%" in a column have already advanced. Teams with "0%" in a column have already been eliminated.
Results are updated at the conclusion of each night's play and do take the results of partially-completed series into account.
 
After game of May 20
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%   100.0%    34.7%    19.4%
 Buf   100.0%   100.0%    65.3%    36.3%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%   100.0%    74.8%    35.3%
 SJ    100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Ana   100.0%   100.0%    25.2%     9.1%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Colo  100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%


After game of May 17
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%   100.0%    51.8%    29.9%
 Buf   100.0%   100.0%    48.2%    27.6%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%   100.0%    60.1%    28.3%
 SJ    100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Ana   100.0%   100.0%    39.9%    14.3%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Colo  100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

After game of May 14
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%   100.0%    51.8%    30.5%
 Buf   100.0%   100.0%    48.2%    28.1%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    80.0%    48.1%    22.6%
 SJ    100.0%    20.0%    10.6%     4.0%
 Ana   100.0%   100.0%    41.3%    14.8%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Colo  100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    48.1%
     Cdn team wins Cup    22.6%

After games of May 12
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%     9.8%     6.0%     2.9%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    94.8%    48.0%    28.9%
 Buf   100.0%    90.2%    44.9%    26.9%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    54.8%    32.9%    15.8%
 SJ    100.0%    45.2%    23.9%     9.2%
 Ana   100.0%   100.0%    43.2%    15.9%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     5.2%     1.2%    0.35%
 Colo  100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    36.9%
     Cdn team wins Cup    18.7%

After games of May 11
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%     9.8%     6.0%     3.0%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    94.8%    48.0%    29.4%
 Buf   100.0%    90.2%    44.9%    27.3%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    38.1%    22.9%    11.0%
 SJ    100.0%    61.9%    32.7%    12.6%
 Ana   100.0%   100.0%    44.4%    16.4%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     5.2%     1.2%    0.36%
 Colo  100.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    27.5%
     Cdn team wins Cup    14.0%

After games of May 10
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%     4.1%     2.5%     1.2%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    94.8%    48.6%    29.8%
 Buf   100.0%    95.9%    47.7%    29.1%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    38.1%    23.1%    11.0%
 SJ    100.0%    61.9%    33.1%    12.6%
 Ana   100.0%    97.3%    43.2%    15.8%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     5.2%     1.2%     0.4%
 Colo  100.0%     2.7%     0.7%    0.13%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    25.0%
     Cdn team wins Cup    12.3%

After game of May 9
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    12.3%     7.5%     3.8%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    93.7%    47.2%    29.3%
 Buf   100.0%    87.7%    43.9%    27.1%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    25.8%    15.6%     7.6%
 SJ    100.0%    74.2%    39.6%    15.3%
 Ana   100.0%    97.3%    44.0%    16.4%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     6.3%     1.4%     0.4%
 Colo  100.0%     2.7%     0.7%    0.14%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    21.9%
     Cdn team wins Cup    11.4%

After games of May 8
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    12.3%     7.5%     3.8%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    93.7%    47.2%    29.4%
 Buf   100.0%    87.7%    43.9%    27.2%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    25.8%    16.0%     7.7%
 SJ    100.0%    74.2%    40.7%    15.7%
 Ana   100.0%    90.1%    40.8%    15.2%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%     6.3%     1.4%     0.4%
 Colo  100.0%     9.9%     2.6%     0.5%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    22.3%
     Cdn team wins Cup    11.5%

After games of May 7
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    25.5%    15.7%     7.9%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    87.7%    42.7%    26.2%
 Buf   100.0%    74.5%    38.6%    23.5%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    43.0%    26.6%    13.2%
 SJ    100.0%    57.0%    31.3%    12.5%
 Ana   100.0%    90.1%    39.6%    15.3%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%    12.3%     2.9%     0.9%
 Colo  100.0%     9.9%     2.5%     0.5%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    38.1%
     Cdn team wins Cup    21.1%

After game of May 6
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    25.5%    15.7%     7.8%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    87.7%    42.7%    25.9%
 Buf   100.0%    74.5%    38.6%    23.2%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    58.5%    37.1%    18.4%
 SJ    100.0%    41.5%    23.5%     9.4%
 Ana   100.0%    81.2%    34.8%    13.4%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%    12.3%     2.9%     0.9%
 Colo  100.0%    18.8%     4.6%     1.0%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    47.0%
     Cdn team wins Cup    26.2%

After games of May 5
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    25.5%    15.9%     7.9%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    80.2%    39.1%    23.7%
 Buf   100.0%    74.5%    40.3%    24.2%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    58.5%    37.1%    18.6%
 SJ    100.0%    41.5%    23.5%     9.5%
 Ana   100.0%    81.2%    34.8%    13.6%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%    19.8%     4.7%     1.4%
 Colo  100.0%    18.8%     4.6%     1.0%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    47.1%
     Cdn team wins Cup    26.5%

After game of May 3
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    40.3%    25.1%    12.5%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    80.2%    37.7%    22.9%
 Buf   100.0%    59.7%    32.3%    19.5%
 Cgy     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Edm   100.0%    58.5%    38.2%    19.6%
 SJ    100.0%    41.5%    24.3%    10.1%
 Ana   100.0%    71.0%    30.5%    12.2%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%    19.8%     4.9%     1.5%
 Colo  100.0%    29.0%     7.1%     1.6%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    53.7%
     Cdn team wins Cup    32.1%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:      0.0%

After games of May 2
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    40.3%    25.1%    11.9%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car   100.0%    80.2%    37.7%    22.1%
 Buf   100.0%    59.7%    32.3%    18.8%
 Cgy    60.0%    31.2%    20.9%    10.9%
 Edm   100.0%    52.2%    33.7%    17.3%
 SJ    100.0%    60.0%    27.0%    11.3%
 Ana    40.0%    28.4%    12.2%     4.9%
 Phi     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%    19.8%     4.9%     1.4%
 Colo  100.0%    28.2%     6.3%     1.4%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    66.0%
     Cdn team wins Cup    40.1%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     60.0%


After games of May 1
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    39.9%    23.7%    11.3%
 Det     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Mtl    29.4%    20.3%    13.7%     8.9%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car    70.6%    56.6%    27.1%    15.9%
 Buf    83.3%    54.2%    27.9%    16.3%
 Cgy    60.0%    31.2%    20.9%    10.8%
 Edm   100.0%    52.2%    33.7%    17.1%
 SJ    100.0%    60.0%    27.0%    11.1%
 Ana    40.0%    28.4%    12.2%     4.8%
 Phi    16.7%     7.7%     2.5%     0.9%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%    21.3%     5.1%     1.4%
 Colo  100.0%    28.2%     6.3%     1.4%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%    0.00%

     Cdn team in final    71.5%
     Cdn team wins Cup    48.0%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     60.0%


After games of April 30
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    39.9%    23.7%    10.0%
 Det    32.6%    29.1%    20.7%    14.1%
 Mtl    29.4%    20.3%    13.7%     8.3%
 Dal     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car    70.6%    56.6%    27.1%    14.4%
 Buf    83.3%    54.2%    27.9%    14.8%
 Cgy    80.4%    44.4%    25.1%    12.9%
 Edm    67.4%    33.7%    21.7%    11.0%
 SJ    100.0%    59.5%    22.8%     9.4%
 Ana    19.6%    12.4%     4.9%     1.9%
 Phi    16.7%     7.7%     2.5%     0.8%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%    21.3%     5.1%     1.2%
 Colo  100.0%    22.3%     4.9%     1.1%
 Nas     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

     Cdn team in final    66.7%
     Cdn team wins Cup    42.2%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     54.2%

After games of April 29 [plus minor bug fix]
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott   100.0%    38.2%    22.3%     9.1%
 Det    32.6%    27.7%    19.0%    12.8%
 Mtl    54.7%    37.8%    26.6%    15.7%
 Dal    33.1%    19.9%    11.6%     6.9%
 NYR     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 Car    45.3%    36.3%    17.7%     9.1%
 Buf    65.6%    45.7%    22.7%    11.6%
 Cgy    80.4%    45.2%    23.6%    12.1%
 Edm    67.4%    31.7%    19.6%     9.8%
 SJ     93.2%    47.6%    18.1%     7.4%
 Ana    19.6%    11.0%     4.2%     1.6%
 Phi    34.4%    17.7%     5.2%    1.67%
 TB      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
 NJ    100.0%    24.3%     5.5%    1.23%
 Colo   66.9%    15.4%     3.4%    0.78%
 Nas     6.8%     2.1%     0.4%    0.09%

     Cdn team in final    71.0%
     Cdn team wins Cup    46.7%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     40.8%

After games of April 28
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    94.0%    32.5%    19.8%     7.5%
 Det    63.2%    53.8%    37.4%    25.0%
 Mtl    54.7%    37.6%    26.0%    14.6%
 Dal    33.1%    20.5%    11.0%     6.5%
 NYR    18.3%    11.0%     5.7%     2.9%
 Car    45.3%    34.6%    17.0%     8.2%
 Buf    65.6%    43.4%    21.5%    10.2%
 Cgy    60.4%    34.0%    15.7%     7.9%
 Edm    36.8%    17.9%    11.2%     5.5%
 SJ     93.2%    42.4%    14.9%     6.0%
 Ana    39.6%    19.3%     6.8%     2.6%
 Phi    34.4%    16.4%     4.8%    1.41%
 TB      6.0%     2.1%     0.4%    0.09%
 NJ     81.7%    20.4%     4.6%    0.94%
 Colo   66.9%    11.7%     2.7%    0.62%
 Nas     6.8%     1.8%     0.3%    0.07%

     Cdn team in final    60.4%
     Cdn team wins Cup    35.5%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     16.7%

After games of April 27
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    94.0%    30.8%    16.7%     6.3%
 Det    63.2%    54.8%    38.7%    25.3%
 Mtl    75.1%    51.6%    34.5%    19.4%
 Dal    20.6%    12.7%     6.9%     3.9%
 NYR    18.3%    10.4%     5.3%     2.7%
 Car    24.9%    18.9%     9.1%     4.4%
 Buf    80.9%    55.1%    27.0%    13.0%
 Cgy    60.4%    34.6%    16.2%     8.0%
 Edm    36.8%    18.5%    11.7%     5.6%
 SJ     93.2%    44.8%    15.7%     6.1%
 Ana    39.6%    20.5%     7.2%     2.7%
 Phi    19.1%     9.6%     2.7%    0.80%
 TB      6.0%     2.3%     0.4%    0.09%
 NJ     81.7%    20.4%     4.3%    0.89%
 Colo   79.4%    13.9%     3.2%    0.71%
 Nas     6.8%     1.9%     0.4%    0.07%

     Cdn team in final    64.8%
     Cdn team wins Cup    39.4%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     18.8%


After games of April 26
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    81.0%    26.6%    14.4%     5.8%
 Det    42.9%    37.2%    26.1%    17.0%
 Mtl    75.1%    50.8%    35.0%    20.4%
 Dal    20.6%    12.5%     7.1%     4.1%
 NYR    18.3%    10.2%     5.3%     2.8%
 Car    24.9%    19.0%     9.5%     4.8%
 Buf    80.9%    53.6%    27.1%    13.7%
 Cgy    76.6%    44.1%    22.9%    11.3%
 Edm    57.1%    28.0%    17.9%     8.7%
 SJ     82.2%    42.5%    15.9%     6.2%
 Ana    23.4%    13.5%     5.1%     1.9%
 Phi    19.1%     9.1%     2.7%    0.85%
 TB     19.0%     7.4%     1.4%    0.31%
 NJ     81.7%    22.1%     4.7%    1.04%
 Colo   79.4%    17.6%     3.9%    0.87%
 Nas    17.8%     5.7%     1.1%    0.23%

     Cdn team in final    70.0%
     Cdn team wins Cup    46.2%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     37.1%


After games of April 25
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    81.0%    26.0%    12.2%     4.8%
 Det    42.9%    35.9%    24.4%    15.6%
 Mtl    87.1%    58.5%    38.2%    21.9%
 Dal    45.6%    27.6%    15.7%     8.8%
 NYR    44.7%    24.0%    12.4%     6.4%
 Car    12.9%     9.1%     4.4%     2.2%
 Buf    87.0%    53.4%    26.8%    13.2%
 Cgy    76.6%    43.8%    21.5%    10.3%
 Edm    57.1%    26.5%    16.2%     7.6%
 SJ     82.2%    37.7%    14.0%     5.3%
 Ana    23.4%    12.1%     4.5%     1.6%
 Phi    13.0%     5.5%     1.6%    0.49%
 TB     19.0%     6.8%     1.2%    0.26%
 NJ     55.3%    15.3%     3.1%    0.66%
 Colo   54.4%    12.1%     2.7%    0.57%
 Nas    17.8%     4.8%     0.9%    0.18%

     Cdn team in final    69.1%
     Cdn team wins Cup    44.6%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     29.0%

After games of April 24
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    64.8%    20.8%     9.8%     3.7%
 Det    61.9%    52.1%    35.9%    23.0%
 Mtl    87.1%    57.1%    38.5%    21.4%
 Dal    45.6%    28.7%    15.5%     8.8%
 NYR    44.7%    23.3%    12.4%     6.2%
 Car    12.9%     9.3%     4.7%     2.2%
 Buf    87.0%    52.1%    27.3%    12.9%
 Cgy    58.6%    33.8%    15.5%     7.5%
 Edm    38.1%    18.4%    11.5%     5.4%
 SJ     69.5%    30.3%    10.6%     4.0%
 Ana    41.4%    20.2%     7.1%     2.6%
 Phi    13.0%     5.3%     1.6%    0.47%
 TB     35.2%    12.6%     2.2%    0.45%
 NJ     55.3%    17.3%     3.5%    0.69%
 Colo   54.4%    10.2%     2.4%    0.52%
 Nas    30.5%     7.5%     1.4%    0.27%

     Cdn team in final    62.2%
     Cdn team wins Cup    37.9%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     14.9%


After games of April 23
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    64.8%    21.9%    10.2%     3.7%
 Det    61.9%    50.4%    33.5%    21.6%
 Mtl    73.5%    48.0%    31.4%    17.2%
 Dal    69.9%    44.0%    23.8%    13.5%
 NYR    65.6%    35.7%    19.0%     9.2%
 Car    26.5%    18.4%     9.1%     4.3%
 Buf    80.7%    46.2%    23.9%    11.0%
 Cgy    58.6%    32.3%    14.3%     6.9%
 Edm    38.1%    17.1%    10.3%     4.8%
 SJ     69.5%    27.4%     9.5%     3.6%
 Ana    41.4%    17.6%     6.1%     2.2%
 Phi    19.3%     7.3%     2.2%     0.6%
 TB     35.2%    10.6%     1.9%    0.38%
 NJ     34.4%    10.2%     2.2%    0.42%
 Colo   30.1%     5.7%     1.4%    0.28%
 Nas    30.5%     6.5%     1.1%    0.23%

     Cdn team in final    56.0%
     Cdn team wins Cup    32.7%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:     11.0%

After games of April 22
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    80.7%    27.3%    12.7%     4.4%
 Det    78.3%    63.7%    42.8%    27.5%
 Mtl    73.5%    49.2%    31.4%    16.6%
 Dal    69.9%    43.6%    22.1%    12.5%
 NYR    65.6%    36.6%    19.0%     8.9%
 Car    26.5%    17.7%     8.6%     3.8%
 Buf    80.7%    45.9%    23.1%    10.2%
 Cgy    75.4%    40.6%    17.1%     8.3%
 Edm    21.7%     9.6%     5.8%     2.7%
 SJ     54.6%    19.1%     6.4%     2.4%
 Ana    24.6%     9.7%     3.3%     1.2%
 Phi    19.3%     7.3%     2.2%     0.6%
 TB     19.3%     5.8%     1.1%    0.19%
 NJ     34.4%     9.3%     2.0%    0.35%
 Colo   30.1%     4.8%     1.2%    0.24%
 Nas    45.4%     8.1%     1.4%    0.28%

     Cdn team in final    56.9%
     Cdn team wins Cup    31.9%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:      8.2%

After games of April 21
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    80.7%    29.5%    13.5%     4.6%
 Det    78.3%    62.3%    41.1%    26.6%
 Mtl    58.4%    39.1%    24.6%    12.9%
 Dal    85.2%    53.1%    27.0%    15.4%
 NYR    80.1%    46.7%    24.5%    11.3%
 Car    41.6%    27.2%    13.0%     5.7%
 Buf    70.2%    37.6%    19.1%     8.3%
 Cgy    75.4%    38.2%    16.0%     7.8%
 Edm    21.7%     9.2%     5.3%     2.5%
 SJ     54.6%    17.9%     6.0%     2.3%
 Ana    24.6%     8.6%     2.9%     1.1%
 Phi    29.8%    10.3%     3.1%     0.8%
 TB     19.3%     5.3%     1.0%    0.18%
 NJ     19.9%     5.3%     1.2%    0.20%
 Colo   14.8%     2.4%     0.6%    0.12%
 Nas    45.4%     7.3%     1.2%    0.25%

     Cdn team in final    51.3%
     Cdn team wins Cup    27.8%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:      6.4%


April 20 adjustment [Hasek removed]
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    70.3%    25.7%    11.8%     4.2%
 Det    67.1%    53.3%    34.7%    22.5%
 Mtl    58.4%    38.4%    24.6%    13.3%
 Dal    85.2%    53.4%    28.4%    16.2%
 NYR    80.1%    46.0%    24.4%    11.6%
 Car    41.6%    27.9%    13.6%     6.2%
 Buf    70.2%    38.1%    19.5%     8.8%
 Cgy    63.2%    32.9%    14.1%     6.9%
 Edm    32.9%    14.0%     8.1%     3.8%
 SJ     70.3%    25.2%     8.5%     3.2%
 Ana    36.8%    13.7%     4.7%     1.7%
 Phi    29.8%    10.4%     3.2%     0.9%
 TB     29.7%     8.1%     1.5%    0.28%
 NJ     19.9%     5.5%     1.2%    0.23%
 Colo   14.8%     2.6%     0.6%    0.13%
 Nas    29.7%     5.5%     0.9%    0.19%

     Cdn team in final    50.5%
     Cdn team wins Cup    28.1%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:      7.9%


3:58 pm MST, April 19 [Esche as PHI starter]
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    82.2%    42.3%    23.5%    11.8%
 Det    67.1%    53.3%    34.7%    21.8%
 Mtl    58.4%    32.1%    20.3%    10.9%
 Dal    85.2%    53.4%    28.4%    15.5%
 NYR    80.1%    42.5%    21.3%    10.1%
 Car    41.6%    27.1%    13.1%     6.0%
 Buf    70.2%    36.8%    17.2%     7.7%
 Cgy    63.2%    32.9%    14.1%     6.6%
 Edm    32.9%    14.0%     8.1%     3.6%
 SJ     70.3%    25.2%     8.5%     3.0%
 Ana    36.8%    13.7%     4.7%     1.6%
 Phi    29.8%    10.0%     2.7%     0.7%
 TB     17.8%     4.8%     0.9%     0.2%
 NJ     19.9%     5.2%     1.0%     0.2%
 Colo   14.8%     2.6%     0.6%     0.1%
 Nas    29.7%     5.5%     0.9%     0.2%

     Cdn team in final    56.3%
     Cdn team wins Cup    32.9%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:      7.9%


END OF REGULAR SEASON (April 18)
         Rd2       CF      Fin     Chmp
 Ott    82.2%    42.4%    23.4%    11.7%
 Det    67.1%    53.3%    34.7%    21.8%
 Mtl    58.4%    32.0%    20.1%    10.8%
 Dal    85.2%    53.4%    28.4%    15.5%
 NYR    80.1%    42.7%    21.3%    10.1%
 Car    41.6%    27.1%    13.2%     6.0%
 Buf    74.7%    39.2%    18.3%     8.2%
 Cgy    63.2%    32.9%    14.1%     6.5%
 Edm    32.9%    14.0%     8.1%     3.6%
 SJ     70.3%    25.2%     8.5%     3.0%
 Ana    36.8%    13.7%     4.7%     1.6%
 Phi    25.3%     7.5%     1.8%     0.4%
 TB     17.8%     4.8%     0.9%     0.2%
 NJ     19.9%     5.3%     1.0%     0.2%
 Colo   14.8%     2.6%     0.6%     0.1%
 Nas    29.7%     5.5%     0.9%     0.2%

     Cdn team in final    56.1%
     Cdn team wins Cup    32.7%
     Cgy-Edm meeting:      7.9%

METHOD

For the fullest account of how these tables are generated, visit my weblog entry on the original Big Spreadsheet. Notice the hilarious choice of "the Minnesota Wild making the conference final" as a particularly unlikely result for the '03 playoffs--that should give you all the warning you need about accuracy and validity. This version of the Big Spreadsheet makes three important changes to regular-season records:

  • It incorporates a strength-of-schedule adjustment for every team.
  • It excludes extra points in the regular-season standings gained in the shootout, for which there is no analogue in the playoffs. (It does include results earned in 4-on-4 overtime. There are many arguments, obviously, for and against this approach.)
  • It corrects team strengths for the absence of backup goalies, where teams are known to be riding a single starter through the playoffs. Nashville's strength, for example, has been heavily discounted to account for Tomas Vokoun's season-ending injury. Where a starting goaltender suffers a season-ending injury during the playoffs, his team's chances will be adjusted correspondingly.

    Unlike older versions of the B.S., this application does not use goal differential as the primary initial indicator of team strength--merely the won-loss record, adjusted for the three factors above and no others. The Spreadsheet does not "know" that there are fewer power plays in the playoffs, and except for goalies it does not "know" what teams have major players suffering or absent from injury. It also treats goaltending as no more important than it is in the regular season: in past years there has been strong empirical warrant for considering goaltending to be especially important to playoff success.
    For partially-completed series, the spreadsheet does "know" who has home-ice advantage in the remaining games.

    This quote from my '03 method notes is the most important thing to understand about these odds charts:

    The only advantage the Big Spreadsheet really confers is consistency--it makes sure... that all the exhaustive and mutually exclusive probabilities add up to 1.000, all along the way.

    In other respects, they should be regarded as merely amusing and probably (in some ways certainly) quite stupid.